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Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?

Bellmore, New York
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Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/uk-europe-covid-infections-cmd-gbr-intl/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0ZnIpwdo2DB7AxOxlEvZKm2UbM5yYpTWXR_OeAZDDM6f4WbqR6OFGZXwM

112 replies to this topic
Torquay, United...
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for London, Devon
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1. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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Yes it is.

Liverpool, UK
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2. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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In terms of accuracy, all of the statements made can be found on publicly-available data sets - the number of positive tests per day, the uptake of vaccinations, the admissions to hospital and the delays in 'routine' hospital treatments because of the logistics of having covid patients. The fact that most of the infection is in school children and those infections then spread through family chains (to 30-40 year old age group who are predominantly parents and then grand-parents). That's all true.

The UK's daily positive tests accounts for about 20% of the worldwide positive tests, with less than 1% of the population. As to the reasons given by the epidemiology / public health experts as to why we have such high rates of infection, I have no reason to doubt their expertise. The fact that the NHS Confederation are suggesting that mask wearing and social distancing should be considered implies there is good scientific basis to think the main differences between UK and other Europe case rates is because of (lack of) physical distancing, (lack of) mask wearing, and social mixing between different households, particularly e.g. in school.

Glasgow, United...
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3. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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But!

I believe we do more testing!

The more people you Test the more positives you get!

You Test 100 people and get 10 positives back.

You Test 100,000 people and get 10,000 positives back.

Now that second line looks horrendous doesn’t it, but both lines are 10%!

And that’s roughly where we are at, around 10%

The difference is vaccination has reduced the rate of Hospitalisations and Deaths.

As for the comment about “learning to live with it” we’ll do we? Or do we just stay locked up and see our lives and economy wither away!

Remember, the boffins have told us it is not going away anytime soon, so we need to adapt and live with it.

London
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4. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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I would say there isn't enough hard data included in the report and the interpretation which has the usual scientifically illiterate biases is iffy as a result.

Having said that I think there may likely be some form of lockdown later this year. The NHS perennially can't cope with winter in normal conditions never mind covid which is likely the biggest driver for restrictions being reintroduced though what these will be is anyone's guess.

Glasgow, United...
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5. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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What’s in the Biscuit Tin today folks?

I think we might have a runner here!

Bristol, United...
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6. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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Yes pretty much.

Cases in the U.K. have been high for months but are now steadily climbing higher, with an average of over 40,000 new confirmed cases a day.

There has been a general feeling (which the government has encouraged) that the worst of the Pandemic is over which has lead to many people no longer wearing masks or taking precautions.

Despite the climbing case numbers, the government are still giving an ‘everything is fine approach’ but many Scientists are suggesting that some restrictions such as Mask wearing, working from home and vaccine passports for large events be brought in sooner rather than later to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed and triggering another lockdown.

If you are thinking of visiting in the next few months I’d strongly suggest you reconsider as the chances of you contracting Covid are likely to be quite high.

London
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7. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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@5. Hobnobs for me. Always hobnobs😆

Liverpool, UK
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8. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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If we take most European nations as an example, we're not doing proportionally more testing - we all only do routine (PCR) testing when symptomatic or a positive lateral flow test is made, and similarly other European nations have people taking lateral flow tests and offer PCR tests when symptomatic. To imply the testing regimes are so different they explain a 10 times or more higher case rate is just false.

We have a far, far higher case rate because of the systematic differences, e.g. schools. It isn't binary - it is possible to return to most of the same activities and ways of doing things with "adaptations". One simple thing like wearing a mask can make a huge difference to infection rates. I would consider that a sensible adaptation, if it means we can then do other social things. The UK Government has gone sold the idea we go back to 'how things were' without any adaptations at all.

These articles are being published because the NHS Confederation have published a media statement to ask Government to act. Yes hospitalisations are a lower proportion of cases because of vaccination, but hospitalisations for September, going in to winter, are far higher than last year which is making NHS managers very worried.

Guildford, United...
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9. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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To give some actual figures, the report, correctly, says it is about the UK as a whole. Currently London’s infection rates are low compared to the rest of the country. Ignoring the really central areas where there are too few residents to make the statistics reliable, on average between 1 and 2 people per thousand are testing positive each week at present in central London, increasing to about 3 in most outer suburbs up to 6 or 7 in some of the worst ones to the west and south. 5 or 6 per thousand is about where the rest of the country is other than the south-east and Scotland which are more like London.

Edinburgh, United...
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10. Re: Is CNN’s Covid Report on London Accurate?
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Post #6 "but many Scientists are suggesting that some restrictions such as Mask wearing, working from home and vaccine passports for large events be brought in sooner rather than later to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed"

I know this is posted on the London Forum and figures are being quoted on a UK basis, but the approach differs within the Nation's of the UK, as the restrictions noted in the previous post are already in place in Scotland (mask wearing never removed as advice).

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